EUR/USD COT Positioning 2025 — Hedge Fund Euro Positioning Analysis
Weekly CFTC IMM (International Monetary Market) EUR/USD futures COT analysis. Track Leveraged Money (hedge fund) net long/short, real money (asset managers), and retail sentiment for EUR/USD.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does COT positioning predict EUR/USD moves?
When Leveraged Money (hedge funds) reaches extreme net longs in EUR/USD, it signals most bullish bets are already placed. A central bank surprise, macro data miss, or technical breakdown can trigger mass long liquidation, driving sharp EUR drops. COT extremes identify setups where positioning asymmetry favors contrarian trades.
What drives EUR/USD positioning fundamentally?
The ECB-Fed interest rate differential is the primary driver. When Fed rates are significantly higher than ECB rates, USD earns more carry — favoring USD longs. When ECB begins cutting while Fed holds, the differential narrows, weakening EUR shorts and triggering EUR rally.
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