INSTITUTIONAL · Institutional · Forex

USD/JPY COT Positioning 2025 — Yen Carry Trade Unwinding Analysis

The most watched carry trade currency pair. USD/JPY COT analysis: extreme Yen short positioning, BOJ intervention risk, and the massive yen carry trade unwind dynamics of 2024-2025.

JPY PositionHistorically extreme net short (watch)
Carry Trade
-4 trillion USD/JPY carry trade
BOJ RiskRate hikes trigger violent unwinding
Key Level160+ USDJPY = intervention territory

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Yen carry trade and why does it matter?

The Yen carry trade involves borrowing JPY at Japan's near-zero interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets (US Treasuries, stocks, EM bonds). An estimated

-4 trillion of such trades existed in 2024. When BOJ raises rates or risk sentiment deteriorates, these trades unwind simultaneously — causing violent JPY rallies and global equity sell-offs.

What triggers a Yen carry trade unwind?

Three main triggers: (1) BOJ raising rates (increases JPY borrowing cost), (2) US rates falling sharply (reduces yield differential), (3) Global risk-off event (traders exit risky assets funded with JPY). August 2024's global equity crash was partly triggered by BOJ's surprise rate hike and simultaneous JPY short squeeze.

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